Are Better Bets Abroad?
Tue, May 1, 2007 @ 08:49 am
One of the toughest parts about sharing the latest and greatest concerning the market is deciding whether or not to follow the crowd. I don't particularly like to do it. In fact, it seems as if I'm a contrarian more often than a lemming. As an example, I pretty much scoffed at 'Wall Street's' 2007 prediction that large cap growth stocks were finally primed to pave the trail. Growth stocks, maybe, but large cap? I don't think so.
Yet, despite my innate yearning to provide something completely different on this site (something I know you won't get anywhere else), I have to apologize in advance - I caved.
After E-Trade introduced it as a mainstream service a few weeks ago, today I'm offering up two bits worth of opinion about international investing.
No, I'm not talking about American Depository Receipts (or ADRs)...the U.S. exchange-traded proxies for some foreign stocks. They're just a single-foreign-stock ETF. There are a few hundred of these securities.
What I'm talking about is full-blown online access to foreign exchanges using a U.S. domiciled brokerage account. While some select firms already offered international trading via a 'live' broker, it was clunky, and certainly not a preferred choice for all those self-directed traders who like to do things themselves on the web.
Though I have mixed feeling about the online option - and probably always will - I still have to admit I'm salivating about the whole new world that just opened up. Of course, it's not all sunshine and roses - there's a whole new world of headaches too. But still, I know in my heart this newest, sweeping change will end up being much more than a client acquisition tool for the biggest online trading firms.
Here For The Long Haul?
I'd be the first to admit a few weeks ago when I first heard E-Trade's news, I figured international stock trading (aside from ADRs) would come and go like a fad, sort of like the exchange-traded fund craze of the late 90's and early 2000. Then I remembered...ETF's are back in vogue again - big time!
So, I don't think international investing is any more of a fad now than ETFs were then. On the other hand, ETF's took about seven years, one raging bull market, one bear market, and one pretty solid recovery after a bear market, to really find a place in the investing world. But, they did it.
I expect foreign stocks to run a similar course. Right now it's something of a novelty. Eventually the novelty will wear off, and they'll actually have to offer risk-adjusted potential. When this happens, I'd be willing to bet it will appear as if they've run their course. Then, once the dust really settles, I believe investors will be contending with these key factors....
The Fine Print
This evolution could further divide the nation's professional traders and the amateurs. The 'I know more than you' game will not likely ever change - but now there will be more playing fields on which to play the game. Good information is already hard enough for the average investor to get, compared to the big firms with well-funded research departments. If the little guy has to rely on getting information from overseas, he may find the challenge a tad overwhelming.
Hurdle number two...if the United States Securities Exchange Commission looks like it lets a few companies slip through the cracks, wait till you see other countries' version of the same agency. Certainly not all of them are problematic, but foreign publicly-traded companies don't have the same set of rules most American investors are used to seeing. And yes, in many cases, the standards are considerably lower. In other cases though, the standard may be a little higher.
Finally, and perhaps an extension of headaches number one and two, there still may be the same rotten food on the expanded buffet. Foreign companies aren't necessarily any better than domestic companies. As in the U.S., there are some clear leaders, some clear losers, and bunch of companies somewhere in between. The key problems though - like shrinking earnings, limited sales growth, weak management, etc. - are problems that know no borders.
Good News
Believe it or not, foreign markets are not as synchronized with the U.S. market as much as we like to think. That's primarily because foreign economies aren't as dependent on U.S. demand as they used to be.
This is great news for U.S. investors. As Jim Cramer says (who I have a love/hate thing for), "there's always a bull market somewhere." Jim, you don't know how right you are. With access to more markets, even the average investors will have a shot at finding such a bull market, even if U.S. stocks are in the gutter. By the way, three out of four stocks tend to move the same direction as the market. Even the best stock picker in the world can't overcome those odds if the market starts to sink....unless they can look elsewhere?
A secondary side effect (and a much less perceptible one, I'm guessing) will be some pressure on U.S. corporations to keep their stocks attractive. Venture capital and interest was relatively easy to drum up, even for a mediocre opportunity. Now with thousands of other opportunities being offered up to domestic investors, it seems to me like American businesses - particularly those needing to raise some capital - are going to have to get on the horse and show something incredible to the market
Just a Suggestion
The next hot market? Though my ideas are subject to constant change, here are three geopolitical areas I've seen consistently strong results from lately.
Australia - If any regulators run a tighter ship than the SEC, I think it may be the Australians. Ironically, they don't necessarily need too. The economy there has shown consistent growth for years, and their stocks have reflected it.
India - The world's fourth biggest population is on track to become the biggest. They're also on track to become the biggest population of Internet users in the world, and at the same time are materializing as the new Hollywood ('Bollywood'). Point being, they seem open to interacting with the international community - a big step towards growth. So, I can see many opportunities popping up there in the coming years.
Latin America - Growth, Part II. Though not quite in the same way as India, I see an economic coming of age here.
My long-shot was, and still is, Russia. Their economy is still fragile, but there are some interesting companies there. The region is also - though somewhat unbeknownst to most - one of the world's biggest oil producers. Information is tough to find, but may be worth a little digging.
When's Your Turn?
As of right now, E-Trade is the first to offer international stock trading in their brokerage accounts, complete with a way to convert dollars into the appropriate currency. The launch is already underway, but they're rolling the offer out to customers in stages - not sure where they are just yet in the process.
I suspect the other big online names will follow. Schwab was actually working on an international trading platform, but abandoned it in the height of the bear market. I have to think they'll be dusting the technology off now. TD-Ameritrade may also step up to the plate as well, if my hunch is correct. Others will follow.
In any case, while strong caution is advised, celebration is merited. The United States is rarely the top-performing equity market on an annual basis. So, let's go out there and find that bull market.....just as soon as your broker opens the door.


Comments